Political Math

As I mentioned in the previous post, Obama should be the Democratic nominee.

But this afternoon I figured out why Clinton still thinks she could have the numbers to win. I believe that when the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on 5/31, she will argue that all pledged delegates in Florida and Michigan should be seated. As a compromise, she'll offer that half of the superdelegates of those states should be seated. This argument fulfills both the idea that every vote should be counted and the idea that the state DCs must still be punished in some way.

I won't try to reproduce the chart I made on the back of our electric bill, but let me give you the highlights of this math. As the DNC rules stand, Obama has a 190 delegate lead over Clinton. He needs 56 delegates to reach the magic nomination number (2025). 294 delegates are left. You can see how the current situation (i.e., what Florida's DC, Michigan's DC, and both candidates agreed on before the process began) makes Obama the clear nominee.

If the Rules and Bylaws committee choose to seat all pledged and half super delegates of FL and MI, the new number for the nomination would be 2143. Clinton's net pledged delegate increase would be 145, which would decrease Obama's delegate lead to 42. Of the 311 delegates still available, Clinton would need 57%, or 176, a number that she could still reach. 

(I think my math is right. These numbers were current on 5/21, just so you know.)

The Rules and Bylaws Committee probably won't select this option. It smells of corruption. But I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to seat half the FL and MI delegates, pledged and super, raising the nomination number to 2117. This would cut Obama's lead to 133, and he would need to win 11 more pledged delegates (out of 86) to clinch the majority. It would still be unlikely for Clinton to win the nomination, but such a solution gives her quite a bit of bargaining power.

Now I just need to figure out why her campaign isn't floating the new political math.