In the fifth scenario, Clinton and Obama get pledged delegates based directly on the popular votes of those primaries, which means that Obama would get none from Michigan. In this scenario, according to DCW, the total delegate count needed to win would be 2209, and Obama would need to get 57 of 86 delegates in order to have a majority of pledged delegates. Obama's lead would shrink to 70 (from 184), and Clinton would have a much better shot at getting the nomination.
It's highly unlikely that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will choose something like the fifth scenario.
If the rules change at this point, causing Clinton to win the nomination, it's almost certain that the party will fracture. In fact, it's possible that a large portion of the Democratic Party would split off to coalesce around Obama.
For a historical perspective, consider T. Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party. During the 1912 primary season, then President Taft won 48 delegates, and TR won 278 delegates. 258 seats remained contested until the convention.
President Taft and his supporters controlled the RNC, which awarded Taft 235 of the contested delegates at the convention. TR took his delegates and left. The 1912 Bull Moose platform: "To destroy this invisible Government, to dissolve the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics is the first task of the statesmanship of the day." Sound familiar?
Of course, TR lost to Wilson, but he came in second, the last third-party candidate to do so.
For bonus points: Who seconded TR's nomination at the Bull Moose Party Convention? Jane Addams.
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